Bottom line: AUDUSD medium term outlook remain bullish until 0.5505 holds well. The currency pair has managed to carve a series of higher highs and higher lows since 0.5505 levels, and bulls remain further poised to push through 0.6700 resistance.
Fundamental Outlook:
AUDUSD, driven by risk-sentiment also managed to rally since beginning of this week and had managed to register highs at 0.6585. This was backed by the Reserve Bank of Australia ruling out possibility of any additional measures required for now, expecting recovery in the latter half of 2020.
Dow Jones, alongside the SPX500 had closed lower by around -1/5% yesterday, after news came in regarding the COVID-19 vaccine, stating the study is yet not enough to draw any conclusions. This is a classic example of how fragile and sentiment drive are equity markets, post COVID-19.
Fears still loom for a potential second wave of COVID-19 infections as US, Europe and Asian economies re-open after several weeks of lock down. Furthermore, the economic damage would require more efforts from Central Banks and is going to take a while to recover. Fed is already prepared to do what it takes to help the economy, hints Jerome Powell.
Technical Analysis:
AUDUSD seems to be back in control of bulls as they managed to print highs around 0.6585 levels yesterday. It has rallied by over 150 pips since 0.6400 lows last Thursday, and still looking poised to push through resistance seen towards the 0.6700 mark.
AUDUSD seems to be breaking out of sideways/consolidation range between 0.6400 and 0.6550 respectively. A print above 0.6560/70 would indicate a bullish breakout with respect to the price action and encourage further push towards 0.6700.
Traders might be willing to take profits around 0.6700 levels and stay aside for a while as AUDUSD would prepare for a corrective drop thereafter. Only a consistent break below 0.6375 would void the above bullish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
AUDUSD Chart
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