Bottom line: EURUSD bullish scenario intact till prices remain above 1.0879 levels. A lower degree Wave 2 may terminate around 1.1030 levels.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD bulls are in control with prices taking out 1.1110 interim resistance last week before reversing lower. The upside potential remains above 1.1500 until 1.0879 support holds. The recent drop from 1.1116 levels is looking to be corrective until now and is expected to terminate around 1.1030 as fibonacci support come in. The medium term wave structure remains intact with Wave (1) in place at 1.1180, followed by a potential Wave (2) termination at 1.0981 respectively. If the above count holds well, a Wave (3) rally is expected to be underway since 1.0981 lows. Furthermore, a lower degree wave 1 of (3) could be in place at 1.1116 last week and potential wave 2 of (3) could terminate around 1.1030 levels, before the 3rd of (3) rd wave resumes sharply higher. As an alternate though, if prices drop below 1.1030 consistently, it could continue until 1.0940 levels. In this case, the higher degree Wave (2) count would be re-adjusted as the entire drop since 1.1180 through 1.0940 would be considered as a more complex wave structure. But at the same time, also note that the medium term wave structure will still remain bullish, with the alternate count on its way towards 1.0940 levels. Hence, a high probable trade direction from here is expected to be on the north side against 1.0879, with potential targets above 1.1500 respectively. It would be interesting to see whether prices bounce back from 1.1030 or 1.0940 levels, going forward. We are still not ruling out the possibility of the latter wave count, since fibonacci 0.786 and channel support are converging around 1.0940 levels. Watch out for a bullish reversal from either of the above levels.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst
EURUSD Chart
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