Bottom line: NZDUSD medium term bullish structure remains intact with Wave (3) complete at 0.6600 levels. A pullback towards 0.6495 would be encouraging.
Technical Analysis:
NZDUSD bulls have managed to push Wave (3) extremely close to the projected target at 0.6625 levels last week. Bearish divergences have begun to appear on the 4H time frame, not shown here. Hence, it would be good to book profits close to 0.6600 levels and wait for a pullback/retracement to complete. The fibonacci support levels begin from 0.6495 and extend through 0.6380 levels respectively. If Wave (4) is on its way, it is expected to terminate above 0.6460 levels, which is termination of Wave (1) as shown here. Please note that a push above 0.6625 still remains possible before Wave (3) terminates. The overall wave structure since 0.6200 lows on October 01, 2019, is still looking encouraging for bulls to gain further, until prices stay above 0.6300 support. Looking into the wave counts, Wave (1), (2) and potential (3) seem to be in place at 0.6460, 0.6300 and 0.6600/20 levels respectively. If the above holds well, Wave (4) drop could be seen towards 0.6495 levels, before the (5)th wave rally could resume towards 0.6750/0.6800 levels, going forward. Alternately, a much deeper correction could be underway towards sub 0.6400 levels, indicating Wave (3) could be extending. Hence, a high probable trading direction from here (for at least short term) is expected to be on the south side, against 0.6630, with potential targets at 0.6420 respectively. A more conservative trading strategy could be to take profits from earlier long positions and remain flat until a corrective drop is complete, before initiating long positions again. Watch out for the next support to come in close to 0.6400/20 levels, for bulls to come back into play.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst
NZDUSD Chart
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