Bottom line: USDCHF bearish outlook remains intact until prices stay below 1.0023/27 levels going forward.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF bears regain control after printing highs at 1.0023 on November 29, 2019; this was expected and discussed during the last 2 weeks. The USDCHF bears have managed to penetrate below 0.9840; previous swing lows and fresh lows have been made at 0.9810 levels this week. Looking at the short term structure, an impulse boundary might be in place between 1.0023 and 0.9810 respectively. Hence, short term rallies are possible and prices might retrace up to fibonacci 0.618 of the recent down swing. Intraday rallies are expected to reach up to 0.9940/50 levels before finding resistance again. At the moment, Wave 3 of (3) seems to be in progress since 1.0023 highs and prices should stay below that to validate the same. The medium term wave structure remains intact with higher degree Waves (1) and (2) are in place at 0.9659 and 1.0027 levels respectively. Please note that Wave (1) was an impulse lower between 1.0237 and 0.9659, while Wave (2) was a corrective wave A-B-C (wave C as an ending diagonal) higher between 0.9659 and 1.0027 levels respectively. Ideally, Wave (3) is underway now and is expected to sub-divide into 5 waves as prices manage to reach 0.9696 and further. Furthermore, a lower degree Wave 1 and 2 of (3) are in place at 0.9840 and 1.0023 levels respectively. With the 3rd of (3) rd wave in progress, prices are expected to accelerate towards 0.9696 and lower levels going forward. A high probable trade direction from here should be on the south side, against 1.0023/27, with potential targets below 0.9696 respectively. Partial profits can be taken for short positions initiated last week, and a pullback should be allowed to rally through 0.9940 levels to initiate fresh short positions.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst
USDCHF Chart
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