Bottom line: GBPJPY short term bearish structure materializing towards 140.00 levels at least. If this is potential Wave 4, expect yet another push above 148.00.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY had reversed last Friday from 148.00 levels as discussed and expected; but remained shy by 91 pips to take out initial resistance at 148.87 marked here. This failure could be a potential bearish turn but it is too early to predict a reversal that might drag prices below 126.00 levels. As the most common occurrence, we would expect a corrective drop towards 140.00 levels as Wave 4 unfolds. Also note that fibonacci 0.382 support is seen around the same levels, along with the previous wave iv termination of one lesser degree (139.30/40). We can expect a bullish bounce from around 139.00/140.00 levels, pushing prices above 148.00 as Wave 5 proceeds higher. If the above short term counts holds well, a Wave 4 is underway towards 139.00/140.00 levels at least. Looking at the short term counts on hourly chart, a 5 wave drop can be seen between 148.00 and 141.98 levels respectively. If this count is correct, the immediate trade direction could be a corrective rally (3 waves) towards 144.00/50 levels at least; with potential towards 145.50/146.50 levels respectively before turning bearish again. An aggressive trade direction could be on the north side against 141.50, with potential targets at 144.50, 145.50 and 146.50 respectively. On the conservative side, one could remain flat for now and allow counter trend rally to materialize through above levels to turn bearish against 148.00, targeting 139.00/140.00 respectively. GBPJPY should be offering trade opportunities on both sides in the short term hence trade according to the risk appetite. Watch out for a swift bullish turn from current levels (142.20/30), towards 144.50 and higher in the immediate short term.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst
GBPJPY Chart
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