Bottom line: GBPJPY must complete impulse by printing above 148.00 going forward, to turn bullish. At the moment, Wave 4 could be underway towards 139.50 at least.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY bears are in control since 148.00 highs on December 13, 2019. As expected and discussed earlier, prices have dropped through 141.17 and could find a bottom around 139.50 zones. This is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of Wave 3, and wave iv termination of one lesser degree. Hence it makes a good case for a potential Wave 4 termination, before the final leg resumes higher. The short term wave counts are suggesting that GBPJPY would resume rally from around 139.50 levels (Wave 4 termination) and push above 148.00 to complete an impulse from 126.00 levels. The wave structure would be clearer and enable us to trade with confidence after the impulse is complete. Aggressive traders if initiated short positions from 148.00 may want to take profits around current price (142.30) or 138.50/140.00 respectively. More conservative trading approach could be to remain flat for now and look for a bullish reversal around 139/140, to initiate long positions against the low formed, and potentially target above 148.00. Alternately, if prices continue to drift lower, it could find support at 135.00 levels which is convergence point for fibonacci 0.618 retracement and the past resistance turned support. A high probable price trajectory could be the lower towards 139/140, then bullish above 148 OR at least 144.00. Please note that GBPJPY has entered into the sell zone again, and if it continues to trade here, we would reconsider the wave counts for a probable low below 126.00. The alternate count looks less probable though, with GBP strength seen towards all major currency pairs. The current drop could just be a retracement, for the next bullish move.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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