Bottom line: NZDUSD bullish momentum remains intact for now as it carves Wave (4) at 0.6615 and is looking poised to push through Wave (5) higher.
Technical Analysis:
NZDUSD bulls seem to be back in control after a brief pullback from 0.6755 highs. It has managed to carve a lower high Wave (4) around 0.6615 levels and is expected to resume Wave (5) higher towards 0.6800/20 at least. Please note that potential Wave (4) has terminated close to the channel support and fibonacci 0382 retracement of Wave (3). This was expected and discussed last week, as ideal condition for 4th wave to terminate. NZDUSD bulls are now expected to push higher towards 0.6800/25, as Wave (5) of the same degree unfolds. This could be the final wave higher, before a meaningful retracement can be expected. Looking at the medium term wave structure since 0.6200 lows print on October 01, 2019; the NZDUSD has been carving higher highs and higher lows. We were considering a potential A-B-C earlier, but probability for an impulse wave looks more convincing. The counts have been marked as sub waves of a potential impulse from (1) through (4) respectively. If the above structure holds well, NZDUSD should ideally stay above 0.6460 (Wave (1) highs), and push towards 0.6800/20 as Wave (5) progresses. Hence, yet another rally remains high probability from current levels, against 0.6460. It is suggested to take profits around 0.6810 levels as a meaningful retracement could be more likely thereafter. NZDUSD could be reflecting a classic impulse wave once a new high is print around 0.6820, which is fibonacci 0.382 extension of waves (1) through (3). Please also note that probability also remains for a push through 0.6950 levels, before Wave (5) could terminate. Watch out for a final wave higher, before pulling back.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
NZDUSD Chart
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