Bottom line: Dow Jones might have print meaningful top at 29054 and a break below 28789 would confirm a bearish reversal ahead.
Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones rally has been stalling lately with bulls showing less conviction on the sustainable highs. We have been calling for a potential bearish reversal around the 29000 zone since last several weeks now. Yesterday’s high at 29054 could be a reversal point that we have been looking for but a minimum break below 28800 would be required to confirm. Please note that 28789 is immediate support on the Daily Chart and a break there would be first confirmation of a potential bearish reversal ahead. The short to medium term wave counts also suggests that Dow Jones might have finally terminated its 5th wave at multiple degrees around 29054. If the above count is correct, we should witness a sharp reversal ahead. Ideally, a break below 28400, which is lower degree wave 4 terminations and a meaningful support, would be a strong indication of a meaningful top in place. Aggressive traders might want to remain short against 29100/200 levels with a short term target below 28400. A more conservative trading approach would be to remain flat for now and allow prices to drop below 28800 and subsequently 28400 levels. Any counter trend rally thereafter should be seen as opportunity to initiate short positions against 29100/200, with potential targets at 28000 and 27300. Looking at the overall wave counts since the December 2018 lows at 21792, the Dow Jones has managed to carve a 5-3-5 structure, labelled as A-B-C. If this is a part of a larger correction, prices are expected to reverse lower at least through 21792 levels before reversing. It is worth considering aggressive or conservative short positions as described here, since the risk-reward ratio is excellent over long term.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
Dow Jones Chart
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