Bottom line: GBPJPY intermediary trend remains down till 148.00 is intact. We are expecting prices to push lower towards 139.50 at least.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY bears are expected to remain in control with 148.00 resistance intact. There are two potential scenarios as discussed here. 1) GBPJPY seems to have terminated Wave 3 at 148.00 and is working on a corrective drop a-b-c towards 139.50. This should be the 4th wave before Wave 5 resumes higher above 148.00. 2) The rally between 126.50 through 148.00 has completed 3 waves until now, which is corrective. A trend reversal here could resume the overall downtrend since 195.00, and push below 126.50. In either of the above scenarios, it is expected to drop lower from current prices around 144.00. We would cover short positions around 139.50, if a bullish bounce is witnessed. If the above counts hold, a high probable trade setup is to remain short, with protective stops just above 148.00 and potential targets around 139.50 at least. Please note that a continued drop below 132.00 would be required to confirm that GBPJPY is heading below 126.50. It is much difficult to project how prices would unfold, going further. Looking at the short term probabilities, it is good to remain short or sell between 144.00/146.00, against 148.00, and minimum target around 139.50 respectively. Looking at the weekly chart, if prices bounce from around 139.50 mark and push higher towards 150, it would complete an impulse. This could confirm that GBPJPY bulls are there to stay for a much higher rally potentially towards 167.00. It would be interesting to see how GBPJPY reacts around 139.50 levels since it also converges with a lower degree wave iv termination. Watch out for a bearish reversal in the short term towards 139.50 at least, before a potential bullish turn.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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