Bottom line: GBPUSD is progressing in Wave C, within the corrective drop since 1.3515. The overall bullish structure is intact with 1.1950 lows in place.
Technical Analysis:
GBPUSD intermediary corrective phase enters its last leg and is expected to print lower towards 1.2850 levels at least. This drop would complete the minimum requirement for a zigzag corrective wave structure since 1.3515. Please note that GBPUSD may dig a bit deeper towards 1.2550/1.2750 levels as well, before finally terminating Wave (2). A number of convergences are seen towards 1.2530/50 as described here. 1. The Elliott Channel support of corrective structure is now passing close to 1.2550. 2. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of Wave (1) rally is seen through 1.2555. 3. The fibonacci 1.618 extension of corrective wave is also seen through 1.2525. 4. The backside of resistance trend line is passing just below the 1.2500 mark. This trend line should not act as a strong support if GBPUSD manages to test through. 5. The past resistance turned support zone is also seen between 1.2540/50. The above reasons are strong enough to believe that 1.2520/50 price range is a great point of convergence. A bullish bounce there is expected to produce a sharp Wave (3) rally that has potential to push towards 1.4200/1.4500 mark. A simple trading strategy could be to look for buying opportunities towards 1.2550/1.2750 levels, with protective stop losses at 1.1950 and target 1.4250 at least. The overall wave structure also remains firmly in control of bulls since 1.1950 lows print on September 02, 2019. The rally towards 1.3515 was clearly in 5 waves marked as Wave (1). This is being retraced lower as expected into 3 waves A-B-C, with potential termination seen towards 1.2550/1.2750 zone. If the above structure holds well, prices should stay above 1.1950 going forward and further push through 1.4200 mark as Wave (3) progresses.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPUSD Chart
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