Bottom line: NZDUSD bullish structure remains intact until prices stay above 0.6450. The support trend line is also seen passing through the same levels around this time.
Technical Analysis:
NZDUSD bulls are poised to come back after having taken a short break since 0.6755 highs. Looking at the wave structure since recent swing highs, NZDUSD might have completed a corrective drop around 0.6580 levels yesterday. Prices have dropped towards the fibonacci 0.382 retracement at 0.6588 of Wave (3), a common wave relation. The Elliott Channel has been broken temporarily but is now seen to be giving way for a potential rally above 0.6667, which is immediate resistance. If the above structure holds, we should witness a rally towards 0.6930 levels with 0.6450 intact. Looking at the overall wave structure since 0.6200 lows on October 01, 2019 a potential impulse wave can be seen underway. Within the proposed impulse, Waves (1) through (4) seem to be in place at 0.6460, 0.6317, 0.6755 and 0.6578 respectively. If the above larger degree counts are correct, NZDUSD should stage a rally towards 0.6800 and 0.6930 levels as Wave (5) progresses further. Ideally prices should remain above 0.6450/60 mark, which is Wave (1) termination, for the above impulse structure to remain intact. Please also note that a major price resistance is seen through 0.6800/0.6800 levels on the daily chart. The above price targets for Wave (5) if reached, would take resistances out further strengthening the bullish structure. Alternately, a drop below 0.6450 would indicate that prices may drop towards 0.6200 or further, before turning higher again. Watch out for a bullish reversal pattern around current price (0.6590/91), and a break above 0.6667 would confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place at 0.6578. It is safe to remain long with a protective stop at 0.6450 and potential target towards 0.6930.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
NZDUSD Chart
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