Bottom line: EURUSD bullish structure remains very intact until the 1.0870 low holds going forward. Quite a few convergences are seen around the 1.0980/1.1000 handle.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD complex correction seems to be into its final leg and bulls are expected to be back around the 1.0980/1.1000 levels. Since the beginning of January 2020, we have been calling for a potential drop towards 1.1000 before the rally could resume. The entire corrective structure since 1.1181 highs on October 18, 2019 could be an expanded or a running flat. The counts are highlighter here as Alt A and B respectively. In either case, EURUSD is expected to bottom around 1.1000/20 or 1.0940/80 levels. This could be the larger degree Wave (2) termination before Wave (3) pushes higher towards the 1.15 and 1.18 handle. If the above counts are correct, EURUSD bulls should be able to hold above 1.0879 levels going forward. The overall structure looks like: Wave (1) terminated at 1.1181 earlier. Wave (2) is unfolding as a complex correction (expanded flat), and could terminate close to 1.1000 levels. Once the above is on place, EURUSD could resume a multi month rally towards 1.15 and higher. Also note that fibonacci convergence is seen around 1.0980/1.1000 levels; and we can expect a bullish bounce there. A high probable trade setup is to remain long and look to add further towards 1.0980, with protective stop at 1.0879 and potential target at 1.1500 at least. Only a break below 1.0879 levels would nullify the bullish structure and force us to re-think on the other side. Until then, expect EURO bulls to gain control anytime soon and resume higher as Wave (3). Watch out for a bullish reversal close to 1.1000 handle, and look to add further longs against 1.0879.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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