Bottom line: GBPJPY intermediary trend still remains bearish until prices stay below 144.50 and broadly below 148.00 levels respectively.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY might remain in control of bears until at least 139.50 levels, before resuming higher above the 148.00 mark. The wave counts since 126.50 levels are clearly indicating a 3 wave rally towards 148.00 highs on December 13, 2019. Please note that Wave 3 was extended here and can clearly be sub divided into 5 waves labelled as waves I through v on the chart here. Giving the nature of this rally we would like to go with a probable count of 4th wave being in progress since 148.00 highs. Potential remains for Wave 4 to terminate around the 38.2% retracement of Wave 3, which is close to 139.50. Also note that the previous wave iv of a lower degree had also terminated close to 139.50 levels. With the above correlations, a high probability bounce is expected around 139.50 before a 5th wave rally could resume. Alternately, if the rally from 126.50 through 148.00 is re-labelled as an A-B-C counter trend, GBPJPY could be heading much lower. For the alternate count to be true, prices need to drop significantly below the 134.00 mark, ideally below 130.00. It is too early to predict or project a bearish reversal from current levels and hence looked upon as an alternate count. For now, GBPJPY is expected to drop to towards 139.50 levels at least before reversing higher again. The alternate counts labelled on the chart here remains only if prices drop below 134.00 and further. It would be interesting to see how GBPJPY would react around 139.50. A bullish reversal there should be bought with stop just below the swing lows, with potential targets above 148.00 levels.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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