Bottom line: EURUSD bullish structure remains intact with 1.0879 holding well. The recent rally might face interim resistance at 1.1085/95 as prices hit past support turned resistance line..
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD bulls came back strong on Friday after printing an intraday low at 1.0992, bouncing back over 100 pips by market close. The rally is still in 3 waves and could be just a pullback, as one can see the support turned resistance line being tested at 1.1095 today. Looking at the medium term wave structure, EURUSD might be unfolding an expanded flat correction since 1.1181/3 highs. Wave A had terminated around 1.0987, while Wave B got terminated at 1.1240 levels respectively. Wave C might still be unfolding as a diagonal. A diagonal would unfold into 5 waves with each sub wave in 3 waves each. If we closely observe Wave C, it has unfolded onto 4 waves until now and each sub waves is seen in 3 waves. If the above count is correct, EURUSD might still print one more low below 1.0992 before reversing. The expected price for the next leg lower could be around 1.0940/50 levels as Wave C would complete 5 waves lower. Also note that the channel line connecting sub waves 1 and 3 is passing through 1.0940/50. Furthermore, it is the 78.6% retracement of the previous rally. Aggressive trading strategy could be to initiate shorts with protective stops above 1.1120, and projected target towards 1.0940/50. A conservative trading strategy could be to remain flat and look for opportunities to buy lower against 1.0879 and potential targets towards 1.15 respectively. Alternately, a 5 wave rally from 1.0992 would confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place already. We would wait for a corrective drop lower, before initiating longs again.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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