Bottom line: NZDUSD bullish structure remains intact for now as prices stay above 0.6200 lows. It is seen to be bouncing off trendline support at 0.6450.
Technical Analysis:
NZDUSD bulls remain in control as it is seen to be bouncing off the trendline support near 0.6450 levels. Please note the wave counts have been adjusted here according to the recent price action. One of the probable counts are NZDUSD has carved a lower degree Wave ii within 3, which seems to be in progress since 0.6317 lows. The rally between 0.6200 through 0.6466 could be Wave 1, followed by Wave 2 termination at 0.6317 respectively. Since then, Wave 3 might be in progress and it could be an extended one. An alternate count could be that Wave (1) of a higher degree is in place at 0.6750 (not labelled here). This has been followed by a corrective drop towards 0.6450 as Wave (2). A higher degree Wave (3) could be in progress now, leading prices much beyond 0.6930 levels. In either case, the structure remains progressive and constructive for bulls to print higher highs and higher lows from here. Bottom line is that NZDUSD must stay above the 0.6200 mark. Furthermore, please note that prices have found support at the 4 month trendline connecting October 2019 lows. This is supplemented by the fibonacci 0.618 retracement/support of the rally between 0.6317 through 0.6755 respectively. If the above structure holds well, NZDUSD bulls might come back strong around current levels and push through 0.6930 at least, going forward. The past resistance turned support is also seen around 0.6450, where prices managed to bounce. All the above facts might be pointing towards traders possibly willing to go long against 0.6200 with potential targets above 0.6930 levels. Watch out for a break above 0.6550/0.6600 to confirm.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
NZDUSD Chart
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