Bottom line: GBPJPY intermediary bearish structure continues to hold until prices stay below 144.00/145.00 levels. Minimum expectations are towards 139.50 levels, which is fibonacci 0.382 support as well.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY bears came back strong after printing 144.60 highs since January 22, 2020. It had dropped until 141.00 levels before pulling back again. The 141.00 handle has been tested almost 3 times in the past few weeks and has shown great resilience. A break below 141.00 would quick bring 139.50/90 levels into play if not further below. The short term wave counts are still suggesting that wave c lower is underway, wince 148.00 highs. Minimum expectation for the correction to complete an a-b-c is towards 139.50 handle. This could be a higher degree wave 4 termination, before the 5th wave rally could resume towards 148.00. Looking at the overall wave counts since 126.00 lows, GBPJPY has managed to produce a 3 wave rally towards 148.00. Since then it seems to be dropping lower in a corrective wave a-b-c, which is expected to terminate around 139.50/140.00 levels respectively. If the above count is correct, we could expect a drop towards 139.50 levels, followed by a bullish reversal. The GBPJPY would then rally above 148.00 in a potential 5th wave higher. Alternately, if the previous rally from 126.50 through 148.00 was corrective (3 waves), then a bearish reversal is underway since 148.00 and prices should unfold into 5 waves lower from here. The alternate count is too far to be considered at the moment and traders might be willing to enter long positions around the 139.50 region, with protective stops just below the 136.00 mark and with projected targets above 148.00 respectively. It would be interesting to see how prices react towards the 139.00/140.00 handle.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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