Bottom line: USDCHF bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 1.0023. Bears are looking poised to reverse lower towards 0.9500 levels.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF bears seem to be in control looking at the medium term structure. We have re-adjusted the counts here with lower degree wave iii potential termination at 0.9613. Since then USDCHF has been working on a wave iv termination which could be in place around 0.9767. An alternate short term wave count could also be marked as a triangle formation for wave iv, which potentially terminated at 0.9756 yesterday. In either case, a wave v drop could resume towards 0.9500/10 levels before a meaningful pullback is expected. Please note that the entire drop from 1.0027 through 0.9500 could be then defined as Wave (3) termination or Wave 1 of (3). If the above counts are correct, prices should ideally stay below 0.9850 mark, which is also the termination of Wave I lower. Traders might be willing to sell around 0.9740/50, with protective stops above 0.9850 and potential targets below 0.9500 levels respectively. Larger degree wave counts also suggest that USDCHF has produced a classic 5-3 wave structure. The drop from 1.0237 through 0.9659 was seen as an impulse (5 waves), followed by a 3 waves corrective rally that terminated around 1.0027. Both are respectively labelled as higher degree waves (1) and (2). The subsequent counts are suggesting that Wave (3) is underway and lower degree waves I, ii and iii might be in place at 0.9840, 1.0023 and 0.9613 respectively. Going further, wave iv termination could be seen at 0.9767 and the final wave is underway towards 0.9510 levels respectively. If the above counts are correct, prices should remain below 0.9767 and continue lower towards 0.9500 respectively. A break below 0.9650 would suggest that USDCHF is headed lower.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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