Bottom line: EURUSD bulls are expected to resume rally from near current levels at 1.0940/50.The overall bullish structure remains intact until prices trade above 1.0879.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD bulls should be poised to resume a higher degree Wave (3) towards 1.1500/1.1800 from current price action around 1.0950. A break above 1.0977 would confirm that a meaningful low is in place at Fridays low at 1.0941. Looking at the wave structure since October 2019 lows at 1.0879, EURUSD seems to have completed or near to completing a 5-3 wave pattern on the higher side. Ideally, another 5 wave rally should be seen towards 1.1500/1.1800 if not further. The rally between 1.0879 and 1.1181 was in 5 waves labelled as Wave (1) here. The entire structure since then has finally taken shape of an expanded flat 3-3-5, corrective wave. This was discussed as an alternate wave count since last several weeks. The counts have been re-labelled on charts reflecting an expanded flat A-B-C. It could also be seen as a combination W-X-Y, which seems to have finally terminated at 1.0941 last week. If the above counts are correct, EURUSD should produce a Wave (3) rally from current levels. Bottom line is that prices should stay above 1.0879, going forward. Keeping the above high probability setup, traders might be willing to initiate long positions around current price action (1.0950), with protective stops at 1.0879 and projected targets around 1.1500 respectively. Also note that prices are bouncing back from hear the fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the entire rally between 1.0879 and 1.1240 respectively. Furthermore, EURUSD has been following the Elliott Channel throughout the drop from 1.1240 and is now finding channel support. Watch out for a bullish reversal from here and a break above 1.1095 resistance should be extremely encouraging for bulls.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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