Bottom line: GBPJPY Wave B triangle could be now complete at 144.50/60 levels. Intermediary corrective Wave 4 could complete at 139.50 levels before the rally resumes.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY might be into its last wave within the corrective phase that had begun since 148.00 levels. Please note that Wave A of the corrective drop had terminated around 141.16 levels as an impulse. Since then a sideways Wave B has been unfolding and might have finally terminated as a triangle at 144.50/60 levels. If the above counts are correct, we can expect a sharp reversal from here as Wave C unfolds. A minimum expectation for Wave C to terminate is around 139.50 levels, which is close to the 38% Fibonacci retracement of previous rally and Wave iv termination of a lesser degree. Please note that Wave C could dig deeper as well before terminating Wave 4 of one higher degree. Alternately, a consistent break above the 144.50/60 resistance zone could indicate that correction completed at 140.92 and GBPJPY bulls are targeting above 148.00 levels. It needs to be seen how the price action would unfold around 144.50/60 levels. The Japanese Yen has been weakening against most of its major peers and the same has been reflecting here as well. Most traders might be willing to stay aside and wait for a confirmed bearish reversal from 144.50/60, on a daily chart to initiate short positions again. Aggressive traders might still be willing to initiate short positions from current levels, with protective stop loss above 148.00 and targeting 139.50 levels at least. Please note that only a drop below 132.00 levels would nullify the bullish structure and indicate that GBPJPY is setting up for yet another low below 126.50 levels. Watch out for a potential bearish reversal here as Wave C is expected to resume lower.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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