Bottom line: GBPUSD bullish structure remain intact until prices stay above 1.1950. The corrective drop could be complete at 1.2850 or close to completion around 1.2750 respectively.
Technical Analysis:
GBPUSD has taken almost 10 weeks for the proposed corrective phase since printing highs at 1.3515 levels on December 13, 2019. The single currency has print fresh lows at 1.2850 on February 21, 2020, and could be possible to have completed its corrective phase A-B-C. Out of the many correlations for Wave (2) termination, 1.2850 is very close to 1.2828, the wave iv termination of one lesser degree. Please note that a minimum criteria for Wave (2) termination has already been met after GBPUSD dropped below 1.2900 and terminated close to wave iv of a lesser degree at 1.2850. A push above 1.3080 which is immediate resistance, could confirm that GBPUSD might have bottomed and continue its Wave (3) rally from here. Alternately, a drop below 1.2850 open up possibilities to drop towards 1.2750 and subsequently towards the 1.2550 mark, before Wave (2) terminates. In either case, the overall larger degree structure remain intact and it is just a matter of time before Wave (3) rally resumes. Please note that there are a couple of convergences seen around the 1.2550 region as well. The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of previous rally and the past resistance turned support zone as well. Most traders might be looking to enter long positions between 1.2550/1.2750 levels with protective stops at 1.1950 and potential price targets towards 1.4250/1.4500 levels respectively. Looking at the larger wave counts since 1.1950 lows, the GBPUSD has clearly produced an impulse rally through 1.3515 levels, labelled as Wave (1). It is being followed by a 3 wave corrective drop A-B-C which could be complete at 1.2850 or should complete around 1.2750 levels respectively. Once the above is in place Wave (3) rally should push towards 1.4200 levels at least going forward. .
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPUSD Chart
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