Bottom line: AUDUSD bullish structure remains intact until prices stay above 0.6307 levels. The corrective drop might be near to complete around 0.6450/0.6500 levels.
Technical Analysis:
AUDUSD seems to be back in control of bulls, since 0.6307 lows print on March 08, 2020. Looking at the immediate wave counts since 0.6307 lows, AUDUSD had rallied almost 400 pips registering the first impulse wave on the 4H time frame. Also note that immediate resistance at 0.6656 was easily taken out, as bulls took control back in style. We had been discussing a potential bullish scenario since last few weeks as each low was clearly accompanied with a bullish divergence. The drop towards 0.6307 was the final thrust move with a sharp pullback towards 0.6680/85 levels respectively. This rally could be labelled as Wave 1, which was subsequently followed by a corrective drop towards 0.6459 levels respectively. Please note that the zigzag corrective drop might be either complete at 0.6459 levels or might print one more low around 0.6450, before terminating Wave 2. If the above counts are correct, AUDUSD bulls might be preparing for a sharp Wave 3 rally towards 0.7060 levels going forward. In either case, traders might be willing to initiate fresh long positions around current price action (0.6500/10), with a protective stop at 0.6300 and projected targets towards 0.6930 and 0.7060 levels respectively. Furthermore, a conventional inverted Head and Shoulder pattern may be taking shape with Head at 0.6307, Left Shoulder at 0.6432, Neck line at 0.6657 and potential right shoulder being carved around 0.6500/0.6450 respectively. If the above pattern and counts hold, Aussie Dollar might be preparing for a long term bullish reversal from closed to current levels. Watch out for a push through 0.6550 levels to confirm that a potential bottom might be in place around 0.6459.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
AUDUSD Chart
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