Bottom line: WTI Crude bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 54.50 levels going forward. It could drift sideways before dropping below 26.00 levels.
Technical Analysis:
WTI Crude remains in control of bears since printing highs at 65.62 way back on January 08, 2020. The commodity has dropped over 50% in value since then and has print interim lows at 27.40 levels. Believe it or not, the counts might be still suggesting that bears still have some steam left and we could see 26.00 and below before WTI Crude produces a meaningful pullback. Looking into the overall wave structure since 76.88 levels in October 2018, WTI Crude had produced an impulse drop to 42.40, labelled as Wave (1). The subsequent rally proved to be corrective and unfolded as a flat A-B-C, which terminated around 65.62, labelled as Wave (2) of the same degree. Since then, Wave (3) has been underway and has managed to carve lower degree Waves 1 and 2 at 49.42 and 59.46 levels respectively. Going further ahead, Wave 3 of (3) is still progressing and might have produced sub waves I, ii, and iii at 44.00, 48.64 and 27.40 respectively. At this point in writing, WTI Crude might be carving a lower degree wave iv, expected to terminate around 35.50/36.00 levels going further. Please note that wave ii of 3 was sharp and hence wave iv of 3 could drift sideways, producing a triangle as the guidelines of alternation suggests. A high probability from here could be a triangle wave iv, followed by thrust wave v lower towards 25.00/26.00 levels to terminate Wave 3. Most traders might be willing to take profits on the short positions taken earlier around the 25.50/26.00 levels, potential Wave 3 termination. We can expect a Wave 4 rally towards 36.00/37.00 levels later.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
WTI Crude Chart
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