Bottom line: AUDUSD bears manage to take out a multiyear support around 0.6050 levels. The intermediary trend might turn bullish from 0.5900 levels going forward.
Technical Analysis:
AUDUSD bears might have either formed a major intermediary low at 0.5959, or could be very close to forming one around the 0.5857 levels. We have presented a weekly chart, with probable counts since July 2011, for a birds’ eye view. The entire drop between 1.1080 and 0.5959 can be looked upon as a potential 3-3-5 structure labelled as A-B-C o the chart here. Please note that Wave C sub divided into 5 waves labelled as Waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. Also note that the entire drop has been labelled as a larger degree Wave (X). Furthermore, also note that the previous support at 0.6050 levels of October 2008 has been taken out recently. If the above counts are correct, AUDUSD could reverse from current price action (0.5990) towards immediate price resistance at 0.7000 levels going forward. Alternately, if the above counts go wrong and the entire drop is viewed as an impulse, AUDUSD could produce a 3 wave corrective rally before reversing lower again. In either case, a bullish turn remains common probability from 0.5900/0.5950 levels, as most traders might be willing to initiate fresh long positions towards projected targets of 0.7000 levels. A more conservative and safe trading approach might ne to remain flat for now and allow price break above immediate resistance around 0.6700 levels. A 5 wave rally towards 0.6700 resistance would instil confidence that the rally is incomplete and could push higher after a corrective drop. Watch out for a potential bottom close to 0.5900/50 levels soon, before AUDUSD produces a bullish reversal towards 0.6700 and 0.7000 respectively.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
AUDUSD Chart
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