Bottom line: USDJPY bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 112.22 levels. It might have carved a low top around 109.60 as traders prepare for a turn lower.
Technical Analysis:
USDJPY looking to resume lower again after printing a lower high around 109.60 levels yesterday. Please note that this rally was expected to terminate around 108.00/50 levels but has extended a bit further and should find resistance around 109.90 which is fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the earlier drop. Looking into the wave structure since 112.22 highs on February 20, 2020, USDJPY had produced an impulse drop towards 101.13 levels, labelled as Wave 1. As expected and discussed here, a counter trend rally has unfolded quickly towards 109.60 and it could be a matter of time before bears take control back. Until prices stay below the 112.22 mark, the bearish structure would remain and it is safe to label the current rally as potential Wave 2. If the above wave counts are correct, USDJPY bears should be poised to resume wave 3 lower towards 98.00 levels and further, as a larger degree Wave C unfolds. Ideally, the drop from 112.22 should unfold into 5 waves to complete Wave C, but a 5-3-5 structure could be possible as well. In either case, we should expect prices to turn lower from here and push below the 98.00 mark to complete the larger degree A-B-C corrective structure that began from sub 125.00 levels since July 2015. Looking at the larger degree wave structure, after finishing a 5 wave rally between 75.00 and 125.00, the USDJPY has been unfolding a corrective drop A-B-C. Please note that Wave A (3-3-5) wave structure had terminated around the 99.00 mark, Wave B unfolded as a bearish contracting triangle a-b-c-d-e terminating around 112.22 levels recently and Wave C could be underway since then. Looking lower from here until 112.22 holds.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDJPY Chart
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