Bottom line: USDCHF might have carved a meaningful bottom at 0.9181 levels after rallying for over 800 pips taking out resistance at 0.9845.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF has moved in tandem with most USD pairs by rallying over 800 pips and reaching 0.9890 levels before pulling back. Bulls have managed to take out interim resistance at 0.9844 levels and is seen ti be testing back side of immediate resistance trend line. Looking at the recent wave counts since 0.9185 lows, the USDCHF pair has managed to complete 3 waves and could be part of an impulse or might have completed an A-B-C. Higher probability remains for a complete 5 wave rally towards 1.0027 levels at least. Immediate fibonacci support comes in at fibonacci 0.382 of Wave 3 around 0.9700 levels, and a bullish bounce is expected if prices manage to reach there. It might be considered safe to think of initiating fresh long positions on dips, going forward. At this moment of writing, most traders might be willing to remain flat and allow prices to complete an impulse above 1.0027 levels. Looking at the larger degree wave count since 1.0237 highs, the USDCHF seems to have completed a corrective wave labelled as A-B-C. The probability of a 5 wave drop at the same degree has been ruled out for now, looking at the recent rally between 0.9185 and 0.9889 respectively and potential to complete an impulse wave higher. If the above counts are correct, USDCHF might have completed a 5-3-5 corrective drop between 1.0237 and 0.9185 and might have resumed on the higher side. A clear 5 waves rally would confirm the same and traders might be willing to buy on corrective drops, going further. Only a drop below 0.9330 would nullify bullish structure presented here.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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