Bottom line: WTI Crude bearish structure might be near to complete around 20.00 levels. A pullback rally could be expected towards 33.00/34.00 levels before the drop could resume.
Technical Analysis:
WTI Crude has print below 26.00 levels as discussed earlier and might be close to completing its bearish drop after printing lows at 20.00 levels on March 18, 2020. Looking at the recent wave counts since 65.62 highs on January 08, 2020, bears might have completed Waves 1, 2 and 3 at 49.41, 53.46 and 20.08 levels respectively. Please note Wave 3 seems to be an extension and sub divided into 5 waves at 45.00, 49.00, 27.30, 34.00 and 20.08 respectively (not labelled on the chart). If the above short term wave counts are correct, we could expect a Wave 4 counter trend rally to materialize and push prices towards 33.00 levels at least, before dropping further. Probability remains for Wave 4 to drift a bit sideways, before terminating around fibonacci 0.382 of Wave 3 around 33.00 mark. Please also note that it is not mandatory for WTI Crude to unfold into 5 waves from 76.88 levels. The drop could be also seen as a part of a combination W-X-Y from higher levels (115.00) respectively. If the latter is correct, WTI Crude might have completed its corrective drop at a larger degree around the 20.00 mark and bulls might remain poised to take control back, going forward. Looking at both the probabilities, it might be concluded that prices have bottomed at 20.00 levels or could drop marginally lower from here, before turning bullish again. Most traders might be preparing to go long with a protective stop around 19.00 levels and a projected target around 33.00, 47.00 and 55.00 respectively. Please note that downside remains limited after printing lows below 26.00.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
WTI Crude Chart
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