Bottom line: EURUSD bullish structure is expected to remain intact until prices stay above 1.0636 lows. A push above 1.1500 resistance would confirm that the longer term trend remain higher.
Fundamental Outlook:
Nearly 10 million U.S citizens applied for benefits over jobs lost in the past few weeks. This number is exceedingly higher since 2009. Adding further to this, COVID-19 cases continue to rise with U.S topping the list of total affected cases around 336,830. Fresh cases added in the past 24 hours were +157, as the country prepares to face a tough week ahead.
The Euro awaits a decision on Corona bond, and this might affect the price action. Countries like France. Spain and Italy, which are hard hit by the Corona crisis are in favour of the above as it would reduce their cost of borrowings. If an agreement is reached, it could boost the EURO while a rejection of the deal could further put pressure on it.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD pair has been retracing its earlier gains (rally between 1.0636 and 1.1150), since last week. The drop has been corrective until this point in writing, and the single currency pair might have carved a higher low around 1.0775 levels, last Friday. If the above structure holds, we might witness a continued rally, going forward.
Please note that EURUSD has found support around the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally at 1.0775. A bullish bounce here could push prices towards 1.1500 levels, which is also marked as immediate resistance. The above should be encouraging to bulls, I the long term.
Most traders might be willing to initiate fresh long positions around 1.07801.0800 levels with protective stops at 1.0636 and target price above 1.1500 respectively. This would also confirm that bulls are here to stay over the long term.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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