Bottom line: Dow Jones remains bearish until prices stay below 29600 levels in the long term. The intermediary counter trend rally is expected to terminate around 23700 levels before resuming lower again.
Fundamental Outlook:
Since April 02, 2020 until yesterday, the Dow Jones along with SPX500 has managed to rally by over 13% as it clocked in a high of 23600 levels. Alongside most Central Banks, FED has pumped in required stimulus and has also hinted to add another $1 trillion, going forward. President Trump also spoke about offering more money to citizens.
The indices have rallied on FED stimulus and also on the reduced number of affected COVID-19 cases in New York. Although the U.S still tops the list of total affected cases at 400,540; there are early signs of a decline in new cases. It remains to be seen how the curve unfolds over the next few weeks, though.
FOMC Meetings Minutes are scheduled today around 02:00 PM EST. It would be interesting to see how markets react to the event with Dow Jones facing resistance around 23700/800 region.
The OPEC meeting tomorrow would also be deciding over Oil’s next move. At this point in writing WTI Crude trades above 25.00, after overnight test of 23.50 levels. An agreement to cutting the production, should send Oil prices to the north side close to 35.00 levels.
Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones seems to be approaching major resistance around the 23700/800 mark. The counter trend rally has managed to test up to 23600 levels, close to the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous drop between 27000 and 18150 respectively.
Yesterday’s sharp reversal might have carved a meaning top around 23600 levels. It remains to be seen if Dow Jones stays below the highs or tests above 23700 levels before reversing lower again.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around 23600/700 levels, with protective stop above 27000 and projected targets below 18200 respectively.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
Dow Jones Chart
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