Bottom line: USDCHF medium term structure is looking bearish against 0.9900 resistance. It is consolidating with a potential triangle at the moment and is expected to drop towards 0.9400 at least.
Fundamental Outlook:
The U.S Jobless Claims continued to rise yet again as over 5.2 million apply for befits over the last week. Over the past one month, over 20 Million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The US Dollar could continue its slide against major currencies going forward.
China’s first quarter GDP shows a decline by 6.8%, a first to be recorded in past several decades. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting lock downs/quarantines, the economy has been largely affected in the first quarter of 2020. The effects would lead to several job losses and loan defaults and would be a concern to major economies.
SPX500 along with the Dow Jones futures rallied up to 2% on Mr Trump’s 3-phased announcement to reopen the American Economy. A potential COVID-19 drug talks added further to the optimism. It remains to be seen how long the rally would last.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF continues to trade in a range and might be unfolding as a contracting triangle before dropping lower towards 0.9400/50 levels. A push above the 0.9800 mark could re-test 0.9900 and higher levels though.
Immediate price resistance is seen towards 0.9800 levels, and bears are expected to remain in control for now. A break below interim support at 0.9500 levels would accelerate the drop further towards 0.9400/50, going further.
The overall structure suggests that USDCHF might have formed a meaningful bottom around 0.9184 levels after a larger degree corrective drop terminated. Bulls would remain poised to take out major resistance at 1.0027 mark to confirm a bullish trend reversal. A corrective drop towards fibonacci 0.618 retracement of recent rally could be ideal for the next Bull Run.
Most traders might be looking to initiate fresh long positions around 0.9400/50, with protective stops below 0.9180 and projected targets above 1.0027. A continued drop below 0.9335 would nullify the long term bullish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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