Bottom line: FTSE bearish structure remains intact until pries stay below 7724 levels in the long term. The counter trend rally might be complete around 5928 levels and FTSE could be seen lower from here.
Fundamental Outlook:
FTSE’s would be looking to take cues from the Sovereign Debt ratings by S&P later this week. A negative rating there could sent FTSE lower below 7950 levels. With major indices including Dow Jones, DAX, SPX500 rallying over the last week, it would be interesting to see how long the party could continue.
Singapore’s largest Oil trading firm Hin Leong Trading has filed for bankruptcy protection over about $4 billion debt. Oil prices have taken major hit in the past several weeks since COVID-19 crisis has dented global demand. An agreement reached by OPEC+ members to cut production and the end of price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia has failed to curb price decline. WTI Crude is trading around $15.30 at this point in writing, down almost 16%.
On the COVID-19 crisis, focus now turns on the daunting task of reopening economies after facing shutdown for several week. The worst might be behind us but challenge to avoid a resurgence remains.
Technical Analysis:
FTSE might have terminated the counter trend rally that had begun from 4762 lows on March 23, 2020. A bearish reversal here, would resume the ongoing downtrend and push prices below 4700 levels.
FTSE has managed to hit just above the fibonacci 0.50 retracement levels seen around 5830. Having said that, probability remains for a push towards the 61.8% retracement around 6078 as well. Immediate price support is seen at 5340, and a break lower would confirm that trend has reversed.
Most traders might be willing to initiate fresh short positions around 5800/5900 levels, with protective stops above 6800 and potential targets below 4700 respectively.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
FTSE Chart
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