Bottom line: Dow Jones long term bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 29600 levels. The recent counter trend rally that had begun from 18200 levels might have terminated around 24400 levels. A push through 25300 will face stiff resistance.
Fundamental Outlook:
Dow Jones along with SPX500 and NASDAQ had slipped by over 2% yesterday and closed just around 23000 mark. The historic drop in Oil prices on Monday had fueled the slide in indices globally. Meanwhile, another stimulus of over $484 billion has been announced by Fed yesterday. It remains to be seen if this could help boost investor/trader sentiment. Dow is seen trading around 23170 at this point and a push above 24400 could test 25300.
Oil prices continue to slide with Brent Crude dropping over 24% yesterday and closing below $20/barrel. The unscheduled OPEC+ meeting held yesterday remained inconclusive of further measures, as U.S remains committed to check further slide. Brent trades 16.00% lower at this point around $16.54/barrel.
Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones bulls are facing resistance around the 24500 zone. The indice reversed yesterday to find an interim support around 22900 levels. It is quite probable that Dow Jones might have topped around 24400 levels or it could be very close to topping around 25300 in near term.
Overall structure remains bearish after Dow Jones had dropped between 29600 through 18200 during Feb-Mar 2020. Since then, the counter trend rally has been impressive and managed to reach just over fibonacci 0.50 retracement of previous drop.
A fibonacci convergence is seen around the 25300 levels where the 61.8% retracement meets 61.8% extension of the counter trend rally. If bulls manage to push higher towards the above mark, Dow Jones would face strong resistance and produce a sharp bearish reversal.
Traders might remain poised to sell on rallies through 24000/25300 mark, with stops above 27200 resistance, going forward.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
Dow Jones Chart
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