Bottom line: Bitcoin long term bullish structure remains intact until prices stay above 3850 levels. In the short term we can expect corrective drop as the crypto approaches resistance around 8000 levels. It might be good to consider taking some profits around current levels.
Fundamental Outlook:
Dow Jones outlook shall rely heavily on the Q1 earnings, US GDP figures and the Fed rate decision to be out later today. The US Equity markets along with major Global Indices are set to face a gloomy outlook as Q1 GDP figures are expected to print lower (US Q1 GDP forecast is -4% against 2.4%). Most traders will also set their eyes on the Fed Rate Decision today, which is expected to be at 0.25%.
AUDUSD rose this morning as inflation figures came in at 2.2% beyond expectations of around 2%. The currency trades around 0.6230 as we write this article and expected to rise further. Still, with rising inflation, it is unlikely that the RBA will hike interest rates anytime soon. It would largely depend on how fast is the recovery post lock down.
On the COVID-19 pandemic, US crosses 1 million mark, the highest number of affected cases across the globe while the total number of deaths has been recorded at 59,266.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin bulls remain in control for now but will be soon facing resistance as prices approach the 8000 mark. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 10500 and 3850 is seen around 8000 levels and the crypto may face intermediary resistance there. If bulls manage to push above 8500 levels, probabilities remain for a continued rally towards 9000 and 10500 respectively.
Structurally, Bitcoin is expected to rally towards 13800 and higher as long as prices stay above the 3850 levels. A larger degree wave has resumed from December 2018 lows at 3100, and bulls should be poised to print higher highs and higher lows.
Immediate support is seen towards 6400/6500 levels, while resistance is around the 9000 mark. Traders might be inclined to take partial profits around 8000 levels and allow a corrective drop lower to buy again.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
Bitcoin Chart
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