Bottom line: Bitcoin long term structure remains bullish until prices stay above 3850 levels. As the crypto consolidates gains, bulls remain poised to target 10500 resistance in the near term.
Fundamental Outlook:
Dow Jones optimism might be fading after the indice along with SPX500, reversed sharply from close to 25000 levels last week. The price action would also depend on the upcoming Job Data on Friday, as record job losses are expected (over 21 million) and unemployment reaching double digits (roughly 16%).
AUDUSD has managed to produce an impressive come back since its March 18 lows at 0.5505 levels. The pro risk currency has rallied over 1000 pips and register a high at 0.6570 levels on April 30, 2020. As the momentum for risk assets (Global Equity Markets) begin to fade amidst fears of a US-China trade war and looming recession linked to COVID-19; it would be interesting to see how AUDUSD price action behaves. Watch out for the Friday Monetary Policy statement from RBA for some volatility in AUDUSD.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin remains in control of bulls since 3850 levels as discussed earlier. After taking out resistance at 9200 levels over the last week, it is seen to be consolidating within a triangle structure. A break out on the north side seems likely as bulls are now targeting 10500 resistance.
Structurally, Bitcoin had carved a meaningful low around 3100 in December 2018. Thereafter, it had rallied towards 13800 levels as an impulse. This which was retraced to fibonacci 0.88 levels around 3850 in March 2020. Ideally, Bitcoin should be heading towards 13800 and higher, to complete the structure.
Traders might be preparing to take profits on long positions taken earlier, towards 10500 levels. A corrective drop might be underway after bulls are able to break above 10500 levels.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
Bitcoin Chart
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