Bottom line: AUDUSD medium term outlook remains bullish against 0.5505 lows. Bulls have managed to hit interim resistance at 0.7030 yesterday. Hence a short term pullback could materialize towards 0.6700 mark at least.
Fundamental Outlook:
Dow Jones closed at 27138 levels, lower by -1%, after having rallied for 7 consecutive days. SPX500 was down more than -0.50% while DAX closed lower by -2.3%. It is too early to confirm, but this could potentially be a turning point for risk sentiment and Global Indices. Today’s most awaited event is the Fed meeting around 02:00 PM EST.
Bitcoin had rallied towards 10500 mark last week before pulling back. The crypto might be facing a potential sell off, as the US Dollar set to regain some of its lost ground. Furthermore, if risk sentiments continue to decline, Bitcoin may follow suit.
AUDUSD managed to hit 0.7042 yesterday, the highest peak since January 01, 2020, before pulling back sharply lower. The risk sentiment related Aussie Dollar managed to close at 0.6954, down close to -0.90%. It may come under further pressure as Global Indices face a potential selloff going forward.
Technical Analysis:
AUDUSD bulls have managed to take out interim resistance at 0.7030 levels yesterday. They have remained in control since 0.5505 lows and carved a series of higher highs and higher lows until 0.7030 mark. Ideally, a corrective drop should materialize soon towards 0.6700 and further, before the rally could resume.
AUDUSD bulls might attempt to push one last time towards the next resistance at 0.7100 levels, before giving in to bears again. This could enable a meaningful drop over the next several weeks. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent rally is seen around 0.6194 levels. High probability remains for a bullish bounce, if prices manage to drop towards the above. Traders might be preparing to book profits on long positions taken earlier.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
AUDUSD Chart
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