Bottom line: SPX500 long term structure remains bearish against 3400 resistance. The counter trend rally that had begun from 2200 levels in March might have been complete at 3230 levels over the last week.
Fundamental Outlook:
NZDUSD had reverses lower from its monthly peak at 0.6585 last week. It might reel under further pressure as GDP figures clocked in the negative today, at -0.2%. The NZDUSD exchange rate is 0.6445 as we write this article and could drop further toward 0.6340/50 levels.
USDJPY exchange rate had managed to gain over the last week and push towards 107.65 before giving up. The anti-risk Japanese Yen could be set to gain further over the coming days as risk sentiment continues to falter. Fear of a second wave of infecting continue to risk and may send Global Equity Markets lower, boosting the Japanese Yen further.
SPX500 had managed to peak around 3230 on June 09, 2020; only to reverse sharply lower. The indice had seen its worst single day drop (over -5.0%) on June 11, since March 23, 2020. A steep rise in COVID-19 infections across the US, China and other regions has sent Global Equity Markets coiling lower. Believe it or not, this might be seen as beginning of a much deeper sell off.
Technical Analysis:
SPX500 bears are back in control after printing fresh interim high at 3230 on June 09, 2020. The indice had reversed sharply and registered a low at 2936 on June 15, before pulling back. Believe it or not, the recent rally is just a pullback and that bears would be back in control soon.
SPX500 had earlier dropped from 3400 through 2200 mark as an impulse. The counter trend rally also seems to be complete at 3230 levels last week. Ideally, the indice could be heading lower towards 2200 levels and further, as the next big move resumes.
Traders might have initiated fresh short positions around 3200/3230 mark, with protective stops above 3400 and projected targets below 2200 respectively. Prepare for the next move lower going forward.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
SPX500 Chart
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