Bottom line: USDCHF medium term outlook remains bullish against 0.9150 lows. Bulls have managed to carve a higher low at 0.9375 recently, and they should remain poised to resume higher from here. Major resistance is seen around 0.9800 mark.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF has found renewed strength from 0.9420 early this week and managed to rally past 0.9500 yesterday. The safe haven US Dollar has gained, as risk aversion returned early this week. Cases of COVID-19 infections has been rising in US and Asian countries along with a global recession looming.
The WHO has warned of another wave of COVID-19 infections across Europe. To remind our readers, this was the exact situation in January 2020. A dramatic 35% selloff in Global Markets followed in February 2020. This might not be the time to be too optimistic on risk assets.
GBPJPY exchange rate has dropped over -4.0% in the past 2 weeks as it trades around 133.00 mark. The anti-risk Japanese Yen has gained across major currencies and this could continue further. Several risk associated currencies like the EURO and Aussie Dollar has also lost against the Japanese Yen.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF bulls have remained in control since 0.9150 lows in March 2020. Another higher low has been carved around the 0.9375 levels producing a Morning Star candlestick pattern. Bulls ideally remain in control and looking to push through 0.9700 levels, going forward.
USDCHF had rallied from 0.9150 through 0.9900 in an impulse wave. Ideally a corrective drop should be produced after an impulse rally. The currency pair managed to produce a correction, which found support around the 0.9375 mark.
Also note that USDCHF corrective drop has found support just below the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of previous rally. A bullish Morning Star pattern also indicates potential reversal ahead. Ideally bulls should be back in control from current price action (0.9480).
Most traders might be willing to hold on to long positions taken earlier, with protective stops just below the 0.9300 mark and projected targets towards 0.9700 and 0.9800 respectively. Only a break below 0.9150 would nullify the above bullish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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