Bottom line: FTSE long term structure remains bearish against 7724 resistance. Bears remain poised to resume lower towards 4800 mark over the next few weeks. A break below 5931 would accelerate the drop as price action confirms.
Fundamental Outlook:
FTSE is up +1.0% along most Asian Markets, and trading close to 6250 levels. The indice is expected to stay below the June 08 high at 6510, going forward. The above fundamental factors, might soon trigger another selloff in Global Equity Markets.
EURUSD is up since Asia Open today, as the exchange rate is trading close to 1.1280/85. The exchange rate has gained as risk sentiment has opened this week on a bullish note. It could come under pressure as the week progresses and drop towards 1.0636.
COVID-19 pandemic has been rising across Asian countries along with the US. Trade wars between US-China, border situation between India-China and a looming economic recession are strong fundamental factors that can easily reverse risk sentiment. Risk associated EURUSD, AUDUSD might come under pressure, going forward.
GBPUSD has managed to bounce back from 1.2250 lows. The exchange rate is trading around 1.2500 for now and is expected to come under renewed pressure over Brexit woes. With the extension over transition behind us, UK and EU need to finalize terms by the end of 2020.
Technical Analysis:
FTSE has carved a meaningful top around 6500 levels on June 08, 2020. The recent rally is expected to stall around 6250/6300 levels, as bears prepare to be back in control. The indice could be setting up for the next big drop towards 4800 and beyond, in the coming weeks.
FTSE has dropped from 6510 towards 5931 as an impulse wave. The subsequent rally was corrective and managed to reach 6355, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop. Ideally, the indice is expected to remain capped below 6510 and turn lower from here.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around 6250/6300 levels, with protective stop above 6600 and projected targets below 4800 levels, going forward. Only a sustained break above 6510, would delay the drop.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
FTSE Chart
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