Bottom line: WTI Crude long term structure remains bullish against $0.01 lows. The commodity might be facing selling pressure towards $25.50 in the near term, after having topped around $41.60 levels in June 2020.
Fundamental Outlook:
DAX had managed to register an intraday high at 12869 levels, before reversing sharply. The indice closed at 12551, down more than -1.0% alongside the SPX500 and Dow Jones. Asian markets have opened gap down today with Nikkei and Hang Seng trading close to -0.80%, as we prepare to publish.
COVID-19 infections have surpassed 13 million worldwide and deaths over 575,000. The tally rose from 12 to 13 million in just 5 days with a few states in the US being worst affected. India has also been adding close to 25K per day since beginning of July and is now the 3rd largest affected country.
Gold has slipped below $1800.00 mark after touching $1812/13 highs yesterday. The yellow metal might come under pressure as the US Dollar Index might see a surge across several majors. Risk associated currencies like the Aussie Dollar might have topped at 0.7000 handle.
Technical Analysis:
WTI Crude might have carved an intermediary to around $41.60 levels in June and could be on its way lower towards $25.50 over the next few weeks. Bears might remain in control until $41.60 resistance holds.
WTI Crude has managed to carve a bullish boundary between $0.01 and $41.60 levels since April 20, 2020. The RSI is also seen in overbought territory and indicating a bearish divergence. A corrective drop towards $25.50 should be seen as a healthy sign.
Also note that $25.50 is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the earlier rally. A bullish bounce can be expected if prices manage to reach there, in the short term. Most traders might remain short for now, with protective stops above $41.60 and projected targets around $25.50.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
WTI Crude Chart
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