Bottom line: USDCHF breaks below major support around 0.9150/80 lows in March 2020. The currency might be carving a meaningful low around 0.9050 levels, as bulls remain inclined to be back in control, going forward.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF enters into its 11th day of consecutive slide as the exchange rate trades around 0.9070 levels. This is mainly attributed to a broad based US Dollar sell off through the entire month of July 2020. The US Dollar Index has dropped nearly 4.5% across major currencies over the entire month.
Major US Indices including the SPX500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ has rallied by over +5.3%, +2.26% and +7.25% respectively this month, adding pressure on the Greenback. As we enter into the last trading day of the month, it remains to be seen if the much awaited risk aversion returns.
US Q2 GDP contracted by over 32% amidst COVID-19 pandemic and lock downs. As Spain, Italy, Canada GDP are also expected to contract, the Global Economic picture remains gloomy and the recovery isn’t going to be a V or a W shaped.
The risk of a potential second wave of COVID-19 infections remain extremely high. Japan and Australia also join the list with US, India, Brazil and South Africa, where infections are on the rise. How long will risk assets continue to rally on hopes of existing and further stimulus packages?
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF has dropped below 0.9150/80 support and is trading around 0.9070 mark as we prepare to publish this update. Bears have remained in control all through 0.9900 resistance but this might be changing anytime soon.
USDCHF drop from 0.9900 highs might be completing around 0.9070/0.9100 levels as the fibonacci 1.618 extension has already been met. The currency pair might produce at least a corrective rally or push prices towards fresh highs above 0.9900 levels.
Either way, USDCHF bulls remain poised and set to rally from current price action around 0.9070 levels. Also note that the recent price drop has been accompanied by a bullish divergence on the daily RSI as shown here. This indicates potential bullish reversal ahead.
USDCHF faces immediate resistance around 0.9100 mark on the hourly chart and a break above that mark could be seen as first sign of a potential bullish reversal. Most traders might be inclined to initiate fresh long positions on a break above 0.9150 levels, going further.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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