Bottom line: GBPJPY short-medium term structure remains bearish against 140.00 resistance. The currency might trade in a range between 128.00/129.00 and 139.00 for a while before breaking out. Bears might remain poised to drag prices lower towards 129.00 from here.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF is trading higher again around 0.9120 levels after printing 0.9050 early this week. The exchange rate could be well supported as US Dollar might be set to rise against most currencies. Risk aversion might return sooner than expected, boosting the safe haven US Dollar. Risk associated currencies AUD, NZD, EUR might face selling pressure going forward.
US jobs report (Non-Farm Payroll) would be in focus today, expected to print 1.5 million. Markets are also hoping a decision on extending the additional USD 600.00 unemployment benefit, stimulus package. If the negotiations fails, it might send huge shockers to the Equity Markets going forward.
US-China tensions rose further after President Trump signed orders that prohibits US residents to do any business with Chinese applications TikTok and We Chat. The set timeline is 45 days from now. As we prepare to publish SPX500 and Dow Jones are trading lower by -0.30%, while Hang Seng is down over -1.5%.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY has reached its potential resistance zone around 139.00/140.00 levels, exceeding above 137.00 resistance. A bearish turn around current levels might push prices lower towards 129.00 mark before finding support again.
Alternately, if GBPJPY is able to break above 140.00/142.00 levels, it would change the immediate bearish view as bulls might remain poised to push towards 148.00 levels, going forward. Prices are re-testing the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the earlier drop, before turning lower again.
Most traders might be inclined to hold short positions with protective stops above 141.00 and projected targets towards 129.00 respectively. A break below 128.00 might push GBPJPY further lower towards 124.00, before finding support again.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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