Bottom line: USDCHF medium term structure might have turned bullish against 0.9050 mark. The currency had print a marginal low around 0.9050 before turning higher again. Bulls are looking poised to remain in control from here.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF is trading higher again around 0.9120 levels after printing 0.9050 early this week. The exchange rate could be well supported as US Dollar might be set to rise against most currencies. Risk aversion might return sooner than expected, boosting the safe haven US Dollar. Risk associated currencies AUD, NZD, EUR might face selling pressure going forward.
US jobs report (Non-Farm Payroll) would be in focus today, expected to print 1.5 million. Markets are also hoping a decision on extending the additional USD 600.00 unemployment benefit, stimulus package. If the negotiations fails, it might send huge shockers to the Equity Markets going forward.
US-China tensions rose further after President Trump signed orders that prohibits US residents to do any business with Chinese applications TikTok and We Chat. The set timeline is 45 days from now. As we prepare to publish SPX500 and Dow Jones are trading lower by -0.30%, while Hang Seng is down over -1.5%.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF might have completed its earlier drop around 0.9050 levels this week. The currency is trading comfortably above 0.9110 handle as we prepare to publish and is expected to continue higher towards 0.9500 and 0.9800 levels respectively, going forward.
USDCHF should push above 0.9240 levels to confirm that a meaningful top could be in place at 0.9050 levels and that bulls are back in control. Potential remains for a push towards 0.9800/0.9900 levels, in the next several weeks.
USDCHF has also displayed a bullish divergence on the daily RSI. As prices dropped to fresh lows towards 0.9050, the RSI has managed to hold above its previous lows. This could be indicating a potential bullish reversal ahead.
Most traders might be inclined to initiate fresh long positions around 0.9100 levels with a protective stop below 0.9050 and projected targets above 0.9500 at least. Only a break below 0.9050 would delay matters further and change the above structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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