Bottom line: EURUSD might be turning lower after 1.1915 highs last week. Bears are looking poised to take control back and push lower towards 1.0636 over the next several weeks. The currency need to break below immediate support seen towards 1.1700.
Fundamental Outlook:
EURUSD exchange rate had dropped on Friday by -0.77%, closing in around 1.1787. The US Dollar came back strong amidst job data and the rising US-China tensions. The EURO might come under pressure this week as the Greenback looks set to gain, over geopolitical risks.
GBPUSD had also dropped by -0.70% on Friday, managing to close at 1.3051 mark. The exchange rate had reached up to 1.3186 levels earlier. The recent developments over Brexit negotiations might have triggered the selloff. It might face further pressure as Q2 GDP figures are set to be out this week
FTSE had remained flat and managed to close around 6059 mark on Friday. It is trading higher and back around the 6100 handle as we prepare to publish. The indice along with SPX500, DAX and Dow Jones would be taking its cues from COVID-19 infections, US-China trade wars and the ongoing negotiations over more stimulus packages in the US.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD might have carved a meaningful top around 1.1915 handle. The currency had dropped over 150 pips on Friday printing intraday lows around 1.1750/55 before pulling back. Bears are looking poised to turn lower from here towards as it trades around 1.1770 levels for now.
EURUSD might have completed a complex corrective wave around 1.1915 levels recently. The earlier drop between 1.2555 and 1.0636 was an impulse wave. Ideally, an impulse is followed by a corrective wave in the opposite direction.
EURUSD seems to have completed the correction around 1.1915 or could be close to termination. Also note the corrective rally had pushed through fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the earlier drop. High probability remains for a bearish bounce around current levels.
Most traders might remain short from recent swing highs around 1.1900, with a protective stop above 1.1950 and target potential towards 1.1167 and 1.1000 handle respectively. A break above 1.1915 would delay matters further.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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