Bottom line: Bitcoin long term structure continues to remain bullish against 3850 lows in March 2020. The crypto has managed to print yet another high around 12473 early this week and could be preparing for a counter trend drop towards 7200 levels.
Fundamental Outlook:
Dow Jones has been drifting in a range and managed to close marginally lower around 27797 levels yesterday. SPX500 has managed to tick higher again and closed around 3393; futures hitting all-time high around 3398 today. Markets will be looking forward for FOMC minutes today around 02:00 PM EST.
Global equity markets, especially SPX500 and NASDAQ, Gold, EURUSD, US Dollar Index, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and others continue to trade near their respective price extremes. Geopolitical risk remains as US-China tensions keep rising and if phase one deal is cancelled, we might witness a severe risk aversion. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen stand to be the only beneficiaries in that case.
AUDUSD exchange rate inched marginally higher yesterday and hit 0.7265 mark. The risk associated currency pair might be face selling pressure towards 0.7275/0.7300 levels, as it has already entered overbought zones. Further if risk assets sell off, it might act as a fuel for the exchange rate to slide.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin continues to defy resistance and has managed to print yet another high around 12473 levels. The crypto remains vulnerable for a corrective drop, as the rise has been accompanied by a steep bearish divergence on daily RSI. Looking lower from here soon.
Bitcoin has been in control of bulls since 3850 lows in March 2020. It has managed to print a series of higher highs and higher lows through 12473 and managed to take out yet another past resistance around 12325 levels. Ideally, it should retrace the entire rally between 3850 and 12473 respectively.
Immediate support is seen through 11130 levels, and a break lower would certainly confirm that Bitcoin has carved a meaningful top around 12473 recently. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally is seen towards 7200 mark. High probability remains for a bullish reversal if prices manage to reach there.
Most traders might be willing to take profits on long positions initiated earlier and stay flat for a while. Aggressive traders might be preparing to go short on a break below 11130 mark, with protective stops above 12500 and projected targets towards 7200 levels respectively
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
Bitcoin Chart
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