Bottom line: GBPJPY medium term bearish structure holds until prices stay below 148.00 mark. The currency has managed to stay below resistance zone around 141.00 as bears prepare to resume lower from here.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF had rallied towards 0.9160 levels post FOMC on August 19. The exchange rate is trading lower towards 0.9070/80 for now, and might further gain as the US Dollar is expected to remain strong over the next several weeks. The exchange rate might be taking cues from the Jackson Hols Symposium to be held over the next week.
Global equity markets were mixed yesterday with most Asian and European Indices closing in the red. Hang Seng was down over -1.5%, Nikkei around -1/0%, FTSE down over -1.10% and DAX down over -0.5%. The SPX500 managed to erase its previous losses and futures are trading around 3390 as we prepare to publish. Investors might keep a close watch over the next few sessions as risk aversion could continue.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY has tested 140.25 levels before pulling back lower again. It is critical for the currency to hold below 141.00 levels to keep the bearish structure intact. Please note, only a consistent rally above 142.50 levels would threaten to break higher towards 145.00 and 148.00 going further.
GBPJPY had earlier dropped from 148.00 through 124.00 levels around mid-March 2020. The subsequent rally has managed to test the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of earlier drop, around 139.00 levels. A bearish reaction around 140.00 mark remains high probability.
GBPJPY faces strong resistance just below 142.00, while support on the daily chart comes in around 132.00 mark respectively. A break below 138.00 would be encouraging to bears as they prepare to push further lower towards 132.00 handle going forward.
Most traders might have booked profits on the long positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders might have initiated fresh short positions around 140.00, with protective stops above 142.00 and projected targets below 132.00 and possible 124.00 in the next several weeks.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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