Bottom line: GBPJPY medium to long term structure remains bullish against 124.00 levels. The currency might be facing resistance as it approaches 142.00/143.00 levels in the near term. Bears might be inclined to take control from here.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF had managed to close around 0.9085 mark, after swing over 90 pips yesterday. The exchange rate might be setting up for further gains over the next few weeks. The US Dollar had reacted lower after Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the monetary policy going forward; only to reverse its losses later. As discussed earlier, US Dollar might be setting up to gain as global indices remain vulnerable.
GBPJPY rallied yesterday to close at 104.66 mark. The exchange rate is trading around 141.44 mark as we prepare to publish today and might gain further through 144.00/145.00 levels. The anti-risk Japanese Yen is giving way to USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY rallies.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY might have hit potential resistance around 141.60 highs today. The currency remains vulnerable for a bearish reversal from here, and a break below 138.00 would confirm. Intermediary support is seen towards 134.00 levels and might produce a bullish reversal there.
GBPJPY had carved a bearish boundary earlier, as the currency dropped from 148.00 through 124.00 levels. Since then, bulls have remained in control and carved a series of higher highs and higher lows through 141.61 today.
Also note that GBPJPY has rallied beyond the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the earlier drop between 148.00 and 124.00 levels. Further, it is facing a past support turned resistance around 141.50/142.00 levels. Hence, a bearish reversal from here remains high probability and it might produce a meaningful corrective drop towards 134.00 at least.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate short positions around 141.00/142.00 levels, with protective stops above 143.00 and projected targets around 134.00 levels respectively. Only a consistent break above 143.00 would change the bearish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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