Bottom line: USDCHF medium term outlook remains bullish against 0.9000 levels. The currency has carved a higher low around 0.9036 levels yesterday and bulls are now looking determined to push higher towards 0.9900 in the next several weeks to come.
Fundamental Outlook:
USDCHF had managed to close around 0.9085 mark, after swing over 90 pips yesterday. The exchange rate might be setting up for further gains over the next few weeks. The US Dollar had reacted lower after Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the monetary policy going forward; only to reverse its losses later. As discussed earlier, US Dollar might be setting up to gain as global indices remain vulnerable.
GBPJPY rallied yesterday to close at 104.66 mark. The exchange rate is trading around 141.44 mark as we prepare to publish today and might gain further through 144.00/145.00 levels. The anti-risk Japanese Yen is giving way to USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY rallies.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF bulls seem to be preparing to extend its rally towards 0.9900 levels over the next several weeks. It has found support around 0.9036 levels yesterday after reversing from 0.9123 highs. Bulls are set to remain in control until 0.9010 lows remain intact.
USDCHF had earlier dropped from 1.0237 mark in a corrective wave. The currency has hit its fibonacci 1.618 extension around 0.9128 mark earlier. The drop seems to be complete around 0.9010 lows and the currency is most likely to reverse higher again.
Also note that bulls have managed to rally towards 0.9160 recently. Further the corrective drop has found support just below fibonacci 0.618 retracement of recent rally between 0.9010 and 0.9160 respectively. High probability remains for a bullish reversal from here on.
Most traders are preparing to initiate fresh long positions from current price action (0.9060), with protective stops below 0.9000 mark and projected targets towards 0.9450 and 0.9900 going forward. Only a break below 0.9010 would change the bullish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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