Bottom line: SPX500 medium to long term structure might have turned bearish against 3600 mark. The indice had dropped through 3300 mark yesterday before pulling back. Bears might be inclined to take control from here and push through 2800 mark in the near term.
Fundamental Outlook:
NZDUSD has managed to pull back after hitting 0.6609 lows yesterday. The exchange rate had come under pressure as global markets reversed sharply over the last few trading sessions. Further the RBNZ would be prepared for another stimulus and negative interest rate policy, to help support the economy. NZDUSD might remain under pressure as US Dollar gains momentum over next few weeks.
USDJPY has been locked within a range between 105.50 and 107.00 in the past few trading sessions. The anti-risk Japanese Yen has managed to gain against GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD as risk aversion returned. The exchange rate might take cues from further development on a possible early elections.
SPX500 had revered sharply after hitting all-time highs at 3588 on September 02, 2020. The indice had collapsed nearly -9.0% before finding support around 3300 handle. This might be the beginning of another round of selloff, as investor sentiment remains fragile over rising US-China tensions.
Technical Analysis:
SPX500 might have carved a major top around 3588 levels early last week. The indice has dropped to 3300 levels since then, before managing to pullback. Also note that break below 3350 support has now confirmed that bears are here to stay in control for long.
SPX500 had dropped through 2200 mark in March 2020 before producing a meticulous rally all through 3588 levels. The entire rally between sub 2200 and 3588 could be seen as the final impulse wave on a much larger time frame.
Ideally, it should be followed by a corrective wave but please note that potential remains for a continued drop towards 2200 levels in the next few weeks. Also note that SPX500 has broken its immediate trend line support as well, which would act as resistance now.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around 3470/80 resistance zone, with protective stop above 3600 mark and short term projected target towards 2800 levels. Only a break above 3600 would change the bearish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
SPX500 Chart
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